Newt Gingrich and the Republican Presidential Primary

Posted by Mike Sylvester - 1/24/12 @ 12:33 am

The Republican Presidential Primary of 2012 has been vibrant and erratic to say the least.  Three different candidates have won the first three states.  Four candidates remain in the race.

I think the race has been so erratic because all of the candidates have some relatively major flaws and the Republican electorate really wanted a candidate who was less flawed.  The Republican primary voters are changing who they are voting for on a regular basis as they get discouraged with one candidate after another.

Currently it looks like either Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich will get the nomination.  Rick Santorum and Ron Paul realistically have little and no chance respectively; however, they do not feel that way and with the chaos that has ensued to date they may be right.  Santorum has a minute chance and it would take a miracle for Ron Paul to win.

The more I watch this race the more discouraged I have become.  There is a growing chance that President Obama could get re-elected and that would be a disaster.  I cannot imagine how much harm he might do to the country as a lame duck President.

In this post I will just discuss Gingrich and Romney since they are the two with by far the best chances of winning the primary.

I am not a fan of Romney; however, if push comes to shove I could vote for him in a General Election.  The good about Romney includes:  He does understand Wall Street, he did turn around the Olympics, he does understand the private sector at least somewhat, he does not seem to have lots of personal baggage, he “looks” presidential, and he does OK in a debate.  His weaknesses include the fact that he has flip flopped on many issues, he comes across as being rich and out of touch, and he does not seem genuine.

I truly do not like Newt Gingrich and I would not vote for him in the General Election if he is the nominee; I would likely vote third party or leave it blank.  His strengths include:  He is an excellent debater, he has a strong grasp on history and politics, and he knows how to appeal to the Republican base.  His weaknesses include:  He has an immense amount of personal baggage, he is a serial adulterer, he has flip flopped on a large number of issues, he is a progressive, and he is not like-able.

When I decide who to vote for character matters.  It matters a lot to me.  I am honestly surprised and disappointed that it does not seem to matter to many Republican Primary voters.

I think Romney and Gingrich are both flip floppers.  I think this reflects negatively on both of them.  I want a candidate who sticks to his or her convictions rather than say what is politically expedient.

Newt Gingrich really fails as far as his personal character and morals are concerned.  He has admitted that while married to his 1st wife he had a long term affair with a woman who became his second wife.  He further admitted that while married to his second wife he had a long term affair with a woman who became his third wife.  This is a deal breaker for me.  I think I MIGHT (but probably could not) be able to look past one affair.  I certainly cannot and will not look past two.  Newt Gingrich got married and committed adultery multiple times.  That is not what I am looking for in a person I would vote for to be the President of The United States because character matters to me.

I truly do not understand how so many evangelical Christians support a serial adulterer.  I do NOT get it…

I am not at all religious.  I am an Agnostic.  Many evangelicals seem to believe that Newt Gingrich has realized that he has sinned and repented and embraced God.  For that reason they have decided they can support him.

Once again I am not religious so please keep that in mind.  I think character matters and I do not trust the character of Newt Gingrich.  I think he will say and do anything to further himself.

Mike Sylvester

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US Marines and three Afghan corpses

Posted by Mike Sylvester - 1/12/12 @ 6:32 pm

Pretty much everyone has seen a video that supposedly (and likely) shows four US marines in combat gear unzipping their pants and “relieving themselves” on the Afghan three corpses.  The video was likely taken by a fifth marine.

War is Hell.  Young men do stupid things when people have been trying to kill them.  That is the way things work.  There is nothing pretty about war and the toll it takes on those involved.

The marines involved should not have done what they did.  It was flat out inappropriate.  Even dumber was taking a video of their actions.

That being said this is not a heinous act that will stain the US military.  It is a stupid action done by a few US marines in a war zone.  They are fighting in a country that is often hostile to them and combat is very stressful.

Mike

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Republican Presidential Primary

Posted by Mike Sylvester - 1/8/12 @ 3:31 pm

The Republican primary has been a roller coaster.  I truly think the rise and fall of so many candidates is historic.

I think there are only four candidates who really have any chance of winning:  Romney (Most likely), Santorum (Unlikely), Gingrich (would take a miracle), and Paul (would take a miracle).

Out of those four I would vote for Paul.  Paul is not perfect; however, his views align best with mine out of these four.  My order of preference is:  Paul, Romney, Santorum, and last Gingrich.

I can vote for Paul or Romney in 2012.  If the Republicans candidate is Santorum or Gingrich I am not sure what I will do; I would likely vote third party.

Gingrich is way too liberal for me.  His personal life is a mess and I do not want a serial womanizer as President of the United States.

Santorum is a big government Republican on fiscal matters.  He seems to want to enlarge the US military and use it oven more often.

Where do you stand?

Mike

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Payroll Tax Cut and the idiots in Washington DC

Posted by Mike Sylvester - 12/19/11 @ 9:01 pm

I generally like gridlock in DC because that means the idiots in Washington DC are not passing laws that will damage our country.  The problem is now that our country is deeply in debt and has a large number of problems that truly need addressed gridlock is not working out so well.

And I have news for Democrats and Republicans alike; each major Political Party is AT LEAST 40% responsible for these problems.

The Reps and Dems agreed to a stupid plan last December to “TEMPORARILY” reduce the amount of social security taxes that employees pay into the system for 2011 only.  This lowered the employee portion of the tax from 6.2% of wages to 4.2% of wages up to the annual cap.  This was stupid for many reasons including:

  1. Social Security is already on an unsustainable fiscal path.  The Federal Government dropped another IOU into the system that will have to be paid back by A Federal Government that is already over 15 trillion dollars in the red.
  2. This change was enacted in December and so the affected Government agencies all had to scramble to deal with this last minute change to the laws.  The same is true for the private sector and employers and their payroll providers.
  3. The change was of course temporary…
So now some of the idiots in DC (In this case it was the Democratic idiots in DC in the US Senate) decided to pass a two month extension of the payroll tax cut and then left town for the Holidays.
This temporary payroll tax cut the Democrats want is wrong for several reasons:
  1. The main problem is it creates new rules that there is not enough time left to implement.  This new change to the law will not be implemented properly by many employers and many Government agencies IF it is even enacted into law by the Republicans in the House which I doubt.
  2. The House Republicans do not want to pass it this way.
  3. It is temporary and kicks the problem down the road.
What a mess…
As a CPA this has the potential to make me a lot of money.  Every time the idiots in DC (Both sets of idiots in DC I might add) pass laws like this firms like mine make a lot of money.
Mike Sylvester
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Jim Howard to Address the CBC on 12/5/2011

Posted by John B. Kalb - 12/4/11 @ 7:58 pm

Just a note to let you know that Jim Howard, past Director of Purchasing for the City of Fort Wayne will be addressing the Conservative Breakfast Club tomorrow morning at 7:30 in the Window Garden Cafe on the 13th floor of One Summit Square building.  You can buy your breakfast or just come to comunicate!  We alway finish prior to 8:45.

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The Changing of Times in Downtown Fort Wayne

Posted by John B. Kalb - 12/2/11 @ 12:29 pm


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President 2012

Posted by Mike Sylvester - 12/1/11 @ 6:13 pm

Who do you currently support for President in 2012 and why?

I am unimpressed with the field.  I obviously will note vote for President Obama; he has been a disaster.

On the Republican side my current thoughts are:

  1. Huntsman is too moderate for me.
  2. I have always liked Ron Paul and he will likely get my vote.
  3. Mitt Romney flip flops too much for me and is too moderate as well.
  4. Bachmann just does not trip my trigger.
  5. Santorum is a conservative; however, he is just not an impressive figure.
  6. Gingrich is the smartest guy on the stage; however, I dislike his personal baggage nor do I trust him.
  7. Perry has truly embarrassed himself.
  8. Herman Cain is not ready for prime time and he may well be a liar.
Looks like I will be voting for Ron Paul again…
Mike Sylvester
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More Congressional idiocy is coming…

Posted by Mike Sylvester - 11/28/11 @ 6:46 am

One of the dumbest things that Democrats and Republicans alike have done is they have made much of the tax code temporary.  They do this because it allows them to act like future budget deficits are lower than they actually are.  It is basically dishonest accounting…

Since the “Super Committee” failed; Congress will have to deal with several of the temporary aspects of the current tax code.  The truth of the matter is Congress was hoping the “Super Committee” would handle some of this for them…  Unfortunately for everyone Congress keeps doing this in December of the year before the tax changes will take place.

THIS IS ABSURD.

The political grandstanding and partisan fighting will be immense in the next four weeks.  Congress has failed to pass a lot of required legislation (again) and will struggle to get it all done.  Lets look at some of the items that are to be resolved this year; please realize there will be even more to deal with NEXT year due to the supposed expiration of the Bush Tax Cuts.

Congress passed the Alternative Minimum Tax in 1969 to ensure less than 50 families (The very rich) paid more in income taxes.  Congress failed to index the AMT with inflation and so more and more Americans are effected by it every year.  Every year Congress decides to “patch” the AMT because they do not want it to effect as many Americans as it otherwise would.  In 1970 the AMT effected 20,000 tax returns.  In 2011 (And it was “patched” in 2011) it effected four million Americans.  If it is NOT patched in the next few weeks it will cause about 34 million American households to pay higher taxes due to the AMT in 2012.  This tax will engulf both the middle classed and the rich.  The one year cost to “patch” the AMT for 2012 is 85 billion dollars.

In difficult economic times Congress has enacted an extension of unemployment benefits to states with high unemployment.  The current extension expires at the end of January of 2012.  If this extension does not occur about three million Americans (mainly the long term unemployed) will lose benefits in February. The cost of a one year extension is 49 billion dollars.

In 2011 President Obama with cooperation from both Parties passed an ill advised employee payroll tax cut. This payroll tax cut caused Americans to pay 112 billion less in Social Security taxes than they otherwise would.  The Federal Government then put an IOU in the Social Security system and promised to pay it back to Social Security in the future.  President Obama now wants to increase the size of the employee payroll tax cut.  The 2011 version decreased the payroll tax from 6.2% to 4.2%.  President Obama now wants to further lower it to 3.1% for 2012.  This will put more money in the pockets of payroll workers; however, the Federal Government has to drop another IOU into the Social Security Trust Fund.  This will cost 175 billion dollars for 2012.

President Obama now wants to forgive half of the portion the employers match towards social security and medicare on the first five million in payroll.  This will save employers money and again the Federal Government will drop another IOU into the Social Security Trust Fund.  This will cost 58 billion for 2012.

There are a lot of tax provisions that expire on 12/31/11.  This package is called the “tax extenders” package.  The cost of this is about 83 billion for 2012 alone.

Congress has promised to cut Medicare payments to doctors by 30% for the last several years.  Then in December they panic and decide not to do it for another year.  The cost of the “Doc Fix” is 22 billion for 2012 alone.

Congress keeps allowing businesses to depreciate equipment faster.  They mistakenly think this causes businesses to buy more equipment.  It may have caused this effect the first year or two; however, it has been going on for well over a decade now and businesses expect it.  The cost of this is 21 Billion for 2012 alone.

Luckily the Bush tax cuts do not expire next month; otherwise the fighting would be far worse…

In summary here are the temporary provisions the Reps and Dems need to agree upon:

  1. AMT, 85 billion (BOTH parties want to patch this)
  2. Extended Unemployment, 49 billion (Democrats want this big time; Republicans kind of want it)
  3. Expanded Employee Payroll tax cut, 175 billion (President Obama and Democrats want this, Republicans have been less interested in this which is surprising with their ant-tax mania)
  4. Employer payroll tax cut, 59 billion (President Obama wants this and I think both sides will want this)
  5. Tax extenders, 83 billion (Both sides want this)
  6. Doc Fix, 22 billion (Both sides want this)
  7. Accelerated Depreciation, 21 billion (Republicans want this big time; Democrats pretty much want it to).
So if all of these items are passed and just effect 2012 this will increase the 2012 deficit by about half a trillion dollars.  I expect both sides to act childish and accomplish almost nothing until very late December of 2011.  Then a big bargain will take place and both sides will pass them all and then head home claiming success…
American is in DIRE trouble.
Mike
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Super Committee Idiocy put into perspective

Posted by Mike Sylvester - 11/27/11 @ 8:02 pm

The United States of America is on an unsustainable path.  The morons in Washington DC (Both Parties) spend all of their time trying to get re-elected rather than fix problems.

No rational person can look at the amount of debt the United States has and the size of its annual budget deficits and think that this path is sustainable.  This year and last year the United States Federal Government borrowed 40 cents of every dollar it spent…

The Congress formed a “Super Committee” of six Democrats and six Republicans.  This committee was given the simple task of finding 1.2 trillion dollars of deficit reduction over the next almost ten years…

Lets assume they just want to solve the problem with spending cuts.  Currently the Congressional Budget Office projects that Federal spending will grow by about 5.8% per year for the foreseeable future.  This is 100% INSANE.

If the “Super Committee” wanted to generate 1.2 trillion dollars in deficit savings all it had to do was to limit the increase in spending to about 3.8% per year.  This SHOULD be easy…  Really easy…

Instead they bickered with each other and accomplished nothing.  It is no wonder Congress has an approval rating of 9%.  I hope that America gets fed up with both Parties and send a lot of new people to Congress next November…

Mike Sylvester

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Have a Happy

Posted by John B. Kalb - 11/24/11 @ 1:35 pm


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