My predictions for the Presidential Election
Posted by Mike Sylvester - 7/12/08 @ 12:30 pm - Filed Under 2008 National Elections, National Politics
I feel that Barrack Obama will be the next President of the United States. I think he will beat McCain in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan and that he will win enough other battleground states to win a relatively close election (Close per Electoral Votes).
I think he will choose Bill Richardson, the current Governor of New Mexico as his running mate.
I think that Barrack Obama will serve for one term and then be defeated in 2012. I think he will be defeated because I think the US economy is going to struggle over the next four years, because the media will turn on him and he will not be seen as “The Messiah” anymore, and because he will do at least of few of the things on the below list:
1. We will still have troops in Iraq past the 18 months he has promised; this will infuriate the Democratic base.
2. He will try to nationalize health care (Though he will fail).
3. He will let many of the Bush tax cuts expire and he will likely raise taxes. I prepare taxes for a living; almost all of the people I prepare taxes for feel that they pay too much in taxes; even those who pay no Federal income tax and even those who get more back from the Federal Government in various tax credits than they paid in!
4. He will pass some Global Warming tax that will hurt American manufacturers and force even more jobs overseas. This will not be popular with unions and will be a factor that will cause the economy to continue to falter.
5. The National Debt will increase markedly. He will spend even more money and the National Debt will increase.
6. He will grant amnesty to millions of illegal aliens. This will infuriate many Americans.
7. He will not have a comprehensive energy policy. He will not allow more domestic drilling and he will not increase nuclear power to the extent it should be increased.
I think that Barrack OBama is going to spend a lot of money in Indiana and he is going to campaign in Indiana. In past years Indiana has been a solidly Republican state; however, I think it is going to be much closer this year. I think McCain will win Indiana; however, by a relatively small margin. I think Barrack Obama will help the Indiana Democratic Party gain some more ground in Indiana; however, I think Mitch Daniels will be re-elected as Governor.
What are your predictions?
Mike Sylvester
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8 Responses to “My predictions for the Presidential Election”
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I predict that Mike Sylvester will eventually learn how to spell B-A-R-A-C-K
I think it is likely now as well that I will learn how to spell Barack…
Mike Sylvester
Mike:
Interesting predictions. I have always felt that this cycle’s candidates have promised way too much.
The Bush objective was to invade Iraq and establish long-term bases. We have built the world’s largest embassy in Iraq. You don’t build something like that and make agreements to keep troops in Iraq if you haven’t planned to do so all along. It is time the candidates understood the overall objective of Bush and co. Of course, McCain is probably thrilled with the idea of a long-term commitment.
Iraq will become another South Korea as far as maintaining a force.
Don’t the Bush tax cuts favor the wealthy? If that is so, I don’t care if they do expire. When you say your clients feel they pay too many taxes, what income brackets are you discussing?
Also, when you make the statement he will raise taxes, are you looking at the expiration of a tax break as an increase? It isn’t an increase, it is returning to a level that had already been in place in the past. A tax increase to me is something like the sales tax. It went up, period.
Health care will not be reformed because all the Republicans, free-marketers, and conservatives need to do is raise the specter of socialism and the American public will cower.
Many of the items you list also apply to McCain, so if McCain were elected, would you give him one term?
Charlotte,
I am not sure if the Bush tax cuts favor the wealthy when you look at them. The Bush tax cuts increased the earned income tax credit which solely beneifts the poor. As far as I can tell the Bush tax cuts helped everyone to some extent.
My clients ran the gamut. The majority of my clients are middle classed and make between $30,000 - $75,000 per year; however I a a few who make less then that and even more who make more…
I am telling you that no one wants to pay higher taxes. I talk to people about it all of the time and anyone who raises taxes, or is perceived to raise taxes is going to have problems in the next election!
I feel that reasonable people can disagree whether or not letting tax cuts expire is a tax increase or not… I am not sure how I feel on that issue.
You bring up a great point about McCain. I also think he would be a one termer for many of the same reasons…
Mike Sylvester
This chart shows that the average tax bill wouldn’t increase under Obama’s plan unless the individual made greater than $227,000 a year.
I don’t know about all of you, but I don’t make 200k a year.
Justin,
That is an interesting chart. Basically it shows that Obama wants to increase taxes on the rich and he wants to further subsidize the poor by sending them even more money then is currently done.
I do NOT make enough money to where Obama would hurt me per the chart you reference; in fact, I am not even close.
Mike Sylvester
Mike it does not matter what folks say.
I agree, and understand what your mind has always set out to share & do; and that is look at the bigger picture. It’s not Black or White or Grey.
Let’s just get the jobs done.
Most stocks are at a all time low, I would suggest
this is the time to buy a favorite stock!
So what I hear you saying is that in an economy that is loosing jobs, Obama’s tax policy would increase taxes on the folks most likely to use their money to create jobs and redistribute it to those least likely to create jobs? I’m not a McCain fan but Obama sounds like Jimmy Carter version 2008.