What were they thinking?
Posted by Mike Sylvester - 8/29/08 @ 7:33 pm - Filed Under 2008 National Elections
In a few minutes I will put up a post explaining why I think Palin was a good choice for McCain.
Before I get to that I want to talk about campaign themes and how BOTH Obama’s campaign and McCain’s campaign chose VP’s that are not in line with their overall campaign themes.
First Obama chose Biden. Obama’s campaign theme has been that Washington is broken and that we need “change.” “Change” is a message that has resonated for Obama. Obama then decided to choose a man who has served in the United States senate for the last 36 years. A man who has created the environment that Obama continually says he wants to change. The pick of Biden did not match Obama’s message of “change” at all.
Then McCain chose Palin. McCain has run on a theme of “experience.” He has portrayed Obama as too inexperienced to be President of the United States. So he chose a women who has some exectuive experience; but, no foreign policy experience at all. The pick of Palin did not match McCain’s message of “experience” at all.
As far as theme’s go Obama and Palin are a much better fit for a theme of “change” and McCain and Biden are a much better fit for a theme of “experience.”
Mike Sylvester
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Well we’re in agreement on that one partner!
Mike and Jeff;
I have a proposition for you both to consider. You might not agree with my thinking here, but try to bear with me for a moment. The VP is always about balancing out the Presidential candidate. In the past, this has often taken the form of geographic location and age. This year, with the prominence of H.Clinton and Obama, race and gender were given top billing.
Now, it doesn’t matter what you personally think about this. It doesn’t even matter what you think the majority of voters think. But I will posit that most political insiders feel that race and gender, among other issues also, will figure prominently into the decisions of many voters. That being said, I doubt if there was hardly anybody close to Obama telling him any names other than white males. And I suspect that McCain was being pressed just as hard by his side to pick a black(or hispanic) and/or female.
So, with this in mind, who would you have both reccomended for the two candidates to pick. Personally, the best I can come up with off the top of my head is James Webb (U.S. Senator from Virginia) for Obama and Condaleeza Rice for McCain. But you guys both follow this stuff a lot closer than I do, so I’d like to know:
If Obama had to pck a white-male, who would you suggest. And if McCain had to pick anyone other than a white male, who would you pick there?
Feel free to add your comments about the first part of my statement as well, but that is not the part that I want to focus on because I really think it is a given.
Phil - great observations. I’m totally with you :).
I would also add that on the republican side, they needed someone younger than 72 ;) and on the democratic side, they needed someone older than 47 (preferably - someone in their mid-50’s).
When I look at the possibilities on the republican side - female and “young” - the list is teeny tiny.
For instance, I’ve always liked Elizabeth Dole - but she is up there in age.
Lisa Murkowski - senator from Alaska - fits the bill in the youth category however, she is clearly tied to the good ole boy network (much like Hilary is) and that has always turned me off. In this particular case, she has followed in the footsteps of her own father, pretty much continuing what he started. I much prefer a woman who is her own person. There are others like her - i.e. Shelley Moore Capito (House/WV).
I like Olympia Snowe - senator from Maine - she is closer to some of my moderate views (compared to other republicans). I think that she was probably considered but not chosen because she is not conservative enough - and McCain really needed to reel in those right-wing folks. Others who fit into that category include Susan Collins (Maine).
Mary Fallin (House - Oklahoma) - her biggest downfall (if I remember correctly) is that she is not married - which again - causes issues with the extreme right.
I sometimes like Michele Bachmann (House - Minnesota) and sometimes not. I like how she calls Nancy P. on her crap. I don’t like her extreme (and negative) views on the LGBT community.
Other republican women - Kay Bailey Hutchison - too much scandal and baggage for McCain to be able to work through in such a short period of time.
I’ll come back later and think more on the democratic side.
FYI - I’m registered as a democrat but I always find myself voting for the person and not the party.
Phil,
There’s Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, Kay Bailey Hutchinson or Christine Todd Whitman. Of course if you’re looking for a staunch conservative then none of these fit the bill. Condoleeza Rice would’ve been a worse pick than Palin given her ties to the Bush Administration. That would’ve been political suicide for McCain.
For Obama there was Sam Nunn, Wesley Clarke, Webb, Schweitzer, Bayh, etc.
As for who to pick, I suppose if I were McCain, and constrained by your ground rules, I would’ve went with Hutchinson.
For Obama I would’ve went with Wesley Clarke. Webb’s an excellent choice too but it’s probably more important to keep him in the Senate right now than have him as VP…
Phil,
I think Obama should have chosen Richardson (Governor of New Mexico) or Webb (Senator from Virginia). Richardson would put New Mexico in the Democratic camp and he has extensive Executive experience and foreign policy experience that Obama lacks. Webb would be excellent because he would put Virginia in the Democratic camp and he has extensive military experience. The only downside to Webb is that he is a senator. I do not like tickets that include two senators.
It is harder for me to find Republicans that I think would be a good choice for McCain. McCain needs a running mate who is younger then he is and he desperately needs one who would energize the conservative base.
Out of the limited choices available I have been in favor of Palin for a couple of weeks; in fact, I had several people call my office last week and ask me how I “knew” about Palin since I had told several people that I hoped McCain would choose Palin.
I think Representative Mike Pence from Indiana would have been a good choice. He is a strong conservative and would ensure Indiana goes to the Republicans. I think Senator Coburn from Oklahoma would have been a good choice; except for the fact that he is another senator and I do not like tickets with two senators on them. Coburn is arguably the strongest conservative in the senate and would definately have energized the Republican base. I also think Huckabee would have been a good choice. He energized the christian right and has Exective experience.
Mike Sylvester
Kristina, Jeff and Mike;
Thanks for the great answers. Now I know who to watch for in 2012! I want to try to better explain the premise that I had laid out for this question now.
I do not think that white males are finished as far as running for the White House. I also do not think there are really very many people who would vote on gender or race as the sole or even the biggest factor. But I do think that race and gender represent very important traits that speak to the diversity of people’s views on the world. I think that this is the year that the invisible law that mandated two white males hold the keys to the oval office has ended. I think that after this point, racial and gender diversity will be considered just as important as georaphic location or political resumes.
Mike made an excellent point that two Senators holding the ticket together does not go over well. Think of the types of questions the candidates often receive: “Well, if you have no executive experience, how can you lead?” or “If you have no experience in Congress, how will you be able to navigate as you must deal with them constantly as President?” A governor and a Senator combined is a much better equation than two of either.
And how often do you see both persons being from the same state? Not only should they be from different states, but there should be a little distance between them. Again, this leads peole to expect that there will be some diversity of views between the two people thus making a broader complet package. Honestly, that is one of the main reasons that I thought Bayh would have been a poor choice. A senator from Illinois and a Senator from Indiana - sounds great to every American, except for those who live on the East coast, or the West coast, or down South.
I think that in the past, political strategist usually considered non-traditional candidates from the perspective of “How much will that negative quality hurt our campaign?” Now, I think they will see it as a generally positive strategy. I think that from this point going forward, two white males sharing the same ticket will be the rare event for either party.
Phil,
The 12th amendment prevents this from happening.
Jeff;
I actually forgot about that. But I think the point about geographic diversity is still valid. I was making my statement based upon my unreliable memory, so I decided to look it up.
Going as far back as Abraham Lincoln, there have only been three instances where the President and the Vice-President where from neighboring states.
Clinton (AR) / Gore (TN)
Truman (MO) / Barkley (KY)
Grant (OH) / Colfax (IN)
As I was checking this, I came across something else interesting that I never realized before. President Chester Alan Arthur served three and a half years, and never had a Vice-President.