Montagano Gaining Ground On Souder
Posted by Jeff Pruitt - 9/12/08 @ 9:42 pm - Filed Under 2008 Local Elections, Featured
In a survey of 504 likely voters Mark Souder’s original 27-point lead has been cut in half. Currently Souder leads 50-37 over Democratic challenger Mike Montagano. However a closer look inside the poll shows Souder is in trouble - a few highlights:
- Montagano’s name recognition is up from 16% to 59%.
- Montagano leads Souder 47-41 among voters that recognize both candidates
- Montagano leads Souder 47-37 among voters that have seen Montagano’s TV spots
- Montagano leads 43-35 among independent voters
- Souder’s job performance is only rated as positive by 48% of the voters. Anything under the 50% Mendoza line means an incumbent is in trouble.
This continues to look like a golden opportunity to oust a completely ineffective Congressman. Republicans can seize the opportunity to term-limit Souder (since he reneged on his original pledge) by voting for Mike Montagano. After all, I’m sure you could find a better Republican candidate to run again in two years…
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32 Responses to “Montagano Gaining Ground On Souder”
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This is one Republican who hopes that Mark gets his wish of over 14 years ago to be “term-limited”. It’s time for him to get a real job for the first time in his life!
My twin 19-year-old sons, who sport McCain bumper stickers on their cars, told me they were voting for Montagano. While this is anecdotal, not statistical, I think it is a bellwether.
Wow. The 59% name recognition seems very high to me. I am fairly confident that I would walk down my block and knock on every door and not find one person that would recognize his name. I am buying that he is gaining ground but I am not buying that name recognition number.
I would guess the numbers came from the likely voters group. So that throws out a great deal of the people.
I heard today on CNN that Obama is NOW in deep trouble in Indiana according to the reporter who had seen data Obama’s team had.
If that is in play then Mark may get some pull along votes.
I worked on Mark’s run the first two times and thought he did a good job but after that I felt things went south.
Then with the fact he has not rose at all in congress standings, accroding to one national ranking. His status among reps is near the 350 mark. One would think with the years he has would have him much higher. The national media must not believe he is any type of player because he is seldom ever ask for a interview.
The final came for me last run when he took part in some the worst attack ads I have seen on the local front. His attacks on Dr. Hayhurst where wrong, he knew they where wrong, and he wenst ahead in airing them.
So this guy from the middle, with GOP leaning will be pushing the button for Montagano. If he does nothing will not be much less then what Mark has done in the last few years.
He has dicked the VA Hospital issue here in for Fort Wayne around for years. He doesn’t have the relationship with other congressmen to make sure it stays open, so we all have to hope on a wing and prayer. Montagano can give me that much.
I would rather have an enthusiastic, willing to learn newbie working for me than an experienced, non energentic person coasting along until he can retire.
Mark Souder needs to be thrown out of office.
I cannot vote for Montagano since his only experience is as an Indianapolis lawyer and it seems to me that he just moved here in order to run for Congress.
I will be voting for Libertarian William Larsen for the 3rd Congressional District. William Larsen is a Republican who recently switched to the Libertarian Party.
Mike Sylvester
Mike,
Does William have bio and platform listed any place? I am willing to look at him because I can tell you that ice water will be the main selling drink in hell before I vote for Souder again.
Mike,
Why don’t you just go back to the Libertarian party? You don’t like any of the GOP candidates. You seem to just want to disrupt things. You’re voting for Bob Barr and now Larsen, you might was well be voting democrat.
Pennywise,
I switched to the Republican Party because I feel that I can help change the local GOP and because I feel that the Libertarian Party cannot win; I now believe that the only candidates that can win are associated with on of the two major political parties.
Just because I am a Republican does NOT mean that I am a blind Republican. I know William Larsen fairly well and he is a much better candidate then Mark Souder. Mark Souder promised local voters he would serve a maximum of 12 years and he is working on his 14th year. I do not support politicians who lie to me.
In fact I think Republicans should vote AGAINST Souder because he lied to them.
As far as voting for Barr or McCain I am not sure who I will vote for; however, I have been leaning towards Barr for a long time. McCain’s choice of Palin has made me consider voting for McCain again.
I do not support McCain because he is so moderate he is basically a Democrat. I completely disagree with McCain on a lot of issues…
I will be voting for many Republican candidates this fall; however, I only vote for candidates who are in favor of smaller government and that eliminates many politicians…
This country would be a lot better off if NO ONE ever voted a straight Party Ticket. No one poliical party could possibly have all of the best candidates!
Mike
J.Q.
I have pdf’s with the items you requested. Please send me an email and I will send them to you!
Mike
Please, please….send Souder out to pasture!
Even a “newbe” lawyer makes sence to me!
Mike Sylvester, for the last couple weeks I have been reading your posts and thinking wow, Mr. Sylvester is really on top of these issues. I found myself repeatedly agreeing with your analysis, and then you drop the “I am voting for Bill Larson” on us. Why would you do such a thing?
Mr. Green Jeans:
I will vote for William Larsen for three main reasons for the 3rd COngressional Seat.
1. I cannot vote for Mark Souder. Mark Souder promised to serve for 12 years when he first ran for Congress. He is going on his 14th year. Mark Souder is a big Government Republican who voted in favor of Prescirption Medicare Part D the largest expansion the the “New Deal” since the 1930’s.
2. I cannot vote for Montagano. He has no experience doing ANYTHING other then being a trial lawyer for a couple of years and even worse he moved to Fort Wayne just to run for Congress.
3. William Larsen is a friend of mine and I agree with him on all fiscal issues and we are both believers in small government.
Mike Sylvester
Mike
I urge you to rethink number 2. There’s little harm Montagano can do as 1 of 435 unless he blinds someone with his smile. Further, as a pro-life, pro-gun Democrat he will be given no power by his party. I’m sure Bill Larsen is a fine fellow, but you’re thorwing your vote away.
Mike,
Why vote a protest vote against someone who’s voting record speaks volumes about how he cares about NE Indiana? As Keith said, Larsen may be a fine fellow, but he doesn’t have a prayer at winning, (especially as a Libertarian) and Mike M. would be impotent.
You’re just a spoiler, and your reputation as such precedes your every comment.
Keith,
I will note vote for Montagano. His experience consists of going to college and working as a lawyer. He then moved to this area just to run for Congress.
Pennywise,
My vote is not a protest vote. Larsen is a smart man with a great deal of experience. His stance on the issues is far more ocnservative then Souder’s stances.
I do not vote for the lesser of two evils.
As I said before I will not vote for a politician who lied. Mark Souder promised to serve for a maximum of twelve years and he is going on 14.
Next you ask why I would: “vote against a person who’s voting record speaks volumes about how he cares about NE Indiana?”
What voting record are you talking about? Mark Souder has been wrong on so many things that is is hard to put into one comment…
Please tell me how his voting record has helped NE Indiana. I am dying to hear this…
Mike
My issues are found at http://www.lpin.org/f/images/larsen_issues.pdf
My website is http://www.justsayno.50megs.com
I grew up in Fort Wayne and graduated from Paul Harding High School in 1975. I enlisted in the U.S. Navy in 1977 and attained the rank of machinist mate 2nd class. I was honorably discharged from the U.S. Navy and attended Purdue University where I earned a Bachelor of Science in Mechanical Engineering. While in college, I met my wife, Lenore. We have five children.
My degreed experience is in naval nuclear reactors, space power, filtration, neutron detectors, radioactive waste, gas pumps, busses and more. I solve problems for a living. I will restore the American Dream, where in a land of opportunity an individual can work hard and prosper. It is not right for politicians to create deficits, borrow the money and give the bill to our children, grandchildren and future generations to pay.
Budget deficits: We hear a lot of talk about cutting the deficit in half. In fact they have talked about it as far back as I can remember. I am 52 years old and I simply cannot remember a surplus year, can you? There are only two methods available to cut deficits, cut spending and/or raise taxes. The last general budget surplus was in 1957! 2008’s deficit is over $600 Billion! To balance the budget we need to first cut spending to the bone and if necessary raise taxes to pay for those programs we want.
Energy reform: Congress has debated energy policy for decades and what do we have to show for it? For millennia, we have used the process of burning to convert fuel to work. It is time to move into the 21st century with truly renewable sources of energy that are clean, reliable and cost competitive. Wind power is cleaner and cheaper than coal or nuclear and has no waste. It is time to stop subsidizing inefficient and wasteful energy programs.
Immigration: I support immigration, not illegal immigration. We need to secure our borders. Those who are in this country illegally are breaking our laws and taking jobs from Americans. They need to be found, identified, processed and removed from our country. There is no such thing as a job an American will not do. 20 million Americans are looking for work who have exhausted unemployment benefits and are not included in the official 6.1% unemployment rate.
Mr. Larsen,
Who are your campaign and finance chairs?
The words of Keith Cumtwa are usually an oasis of reason and wisdom in a desert of madness and groupthink, but in this case I have to disagree with him.
Keith, when your great-grandfather Kees Von Cumtoix came over from the Netherlands, he came over for the liberty to vote for anyone he damn well pleased. He did not come over to suffer the tyrannical indignity of being told that he had to support one of the two establishment candidates shoved down his throat lest he “waste” his vote.
The whole purpose of voting is for each citizen to express his preference for governance. So what if one citizen’s preference is unique or unpopular? He’s not “wasting” anything by voting his conscience. He’s stating his desires in the most sacred forum our government provides. The true waste would be for that citizen to vote for a candidate he doesn’t support at the expense of the candidate he does. If everyone voted their conscience, instead of buying this garbage line about “wasted votes,” the composition of our local, state, and even federal governments would change for the better.
Mike, I applaud you for being willing to take an unpopular, but principled and beneficial step, by voting for and publicly supporting a candidate like Mr. Larsen. Keith is probably right–Larsen probably won’t win. But that isn’t all that matters. He, and you, are engaging in an act of sincere patriotism just by putting a third alternative out there. I thank you both.
Mr. Larsen,
Your FEC disclosure is empty:
http://query.nictusa.com/cgi-bin/can_detail/H2IN03145/
No Individuals Gave To: LARSEN, WILLIAM
Penny, I have no campaign and finance chairs. I finance my own campaign. No filing disclosure is required until a candidate raises or spends $5,000. I have not done so as of date.
If you think that the Hundreds of Thousands of dollars that both Souder and Montagano have raised is enough to buy your vote, go ahead and vote for them. However, if you have read and agree with the issues I have raised and addressed both on my web site and my flyer, then you are more than welcome to join the thousands who support William Larsen.
I believe a face to face contact and word of mouth is far better than radio and TV. It may not get my name out as fast, but I do have name recognition and a growth rate in support that is growing significantly each time.
Best regards.
Bill
Nobody is buying anybody’s vote. It’s a fact of life that you have to spend money to get your message out. JIff’s got great peanut butter and Nike’s got good shoes - but nobody beyond a handful of people would ever hear about them if they didn’t advertise. It’s no different than political candidates. How would you know that Mark Souder had a grandson if you didn’t see an ad with him sitting on Souder’s knee?
No kidding. Votes go to the best option people know about. No recognition; no vote. No mass media; no recognition. (Or not enough, at least). I admire what you’re doing, Mr. Larsen–but could you not do it more effectively with a little cash in hand?
If you cant raise money, it is a sign that you cannot effectively communicate a compelling message to people. As a candidate you need to be able to sell yourself to small groups and donors to raise money and then get your message and name out to the voting public. I always get a kick out of people saying, John Doe would win if he could raise more money………. well, if he were a strong candidate, he would be able to RAISE MONEY. You will see people run for local office and raise $230, well that is a sign that they either have not met many people in their life OR, the people that know him best dont think his candidacy is worth $25.
Montagano is obviously able to make a compelling case to people so they open up their checkbooks.
I would venture to say that Mr. Larsen has less than 2% name recognition in the congressional district. I am not trying to be mean, just honest. If I walked my neighborhood tonight and knocked on every single door, I would venture that 100% of the people would know Mark Souder’s name, 30% to 40% might know Montagano’s name and zero people would know Mr. Larsen’s name. Sorry, just the facts.
Mr. Green Jeans, where do you live?
I actually have more name recognition than zero. In 2006 I received 35% of the republican primary vote in Allen County and 30% district wide. Some may be a protest vote, but not all.
What I do have is more logo recognition than anyone else. More people know the “guy” who just says no to Social Security.
The question is is name recognition or issue oriented more important? When I ask what Montagano wants to do, no one knows. When you go to his web site, there is zilch in information. At least my web site is getting good hits, with visitors looking at many different files and staying ten to fifteen minutes.
Goshen College has asked me if I would be interested in a debate or conversation between myself and Montagano. Souder is not responding to their requests.
Sorry, Mr. Larsen, I live in Fort Wayne and I stick to what I said. Every door in my neighborhood. I would bet my last dollar on it. At end of the day, you must raise money to raise a campaign that has any chance of winning. Its very easy to be the 30% protest vote. Your button could have just as easily said “Not Souder”. I am not saying this is right, wrong, good, or bad, just the way it is. Without raising money, you can run every two years until 2032 and you will still be getting 30% in the primary or 10% in the general.
To be a serious candidate for congress you MUST first get name recognition into the 80s or higher and then you can push and win on the issues.
There has been a lot of bemoaning the two party system on this blog and I can understand that. You can blame the system but you also have to look in the mirror. The local libertarian party has the right to put their candidates on the ballot - a nice arrow to have in your quiver. Yet the public hears this nonsense about give me liberty or give me cancer, Bob Barr can win, I don’t have to raise any money to run for Congress, etc., etc., and its alarming. If you act like a fringe party, people are going to treat you like a fringe party.
Mr Green Jeans,
This is America. Most Congressmen have 20% name recognition among their own constituents.
Bob, funny line, but I think Souder would poll at nearly 95% amoung likely voters.
Bob,
I think Green Jeans is right here. As Keith Cumtwa would say, “if you want to be taken seriously as a candidate, run like you’re serious about being a candidate.”
That means name recognition. Which means advertising. Which means money.
I am so sickened by both parties especially Souder.William Larsen drove clear out here to my house at 8:00 pm at night in rural Dekalb county just to chat about the issues with my family and he seemed very informed and down to earth unlike the out of touch robots running on the major tickets. I was proud to help put up his signs all around my area and if I’m considered a spoiler or a protest voter or even a traitor to the Republicans then i wear that badge proudly. i was a straight ticket republican but after the last eight years never ever again will i devote to one or two or even three parties. I will vote my belief as an American and i don’t care what others call me anymore, i’m more concerned about what my children will inherit and sadly it doesn’t look good mainly because of loyalty to these damn parties and little loyalty or knowledge of the consitution of this country or this state.
I have sent my flier by email versus the US Mail. Is this more effective than a flashy flier? Over the past few weeks I have received a lot of replies. When I email I attempt to use blind copy which protects the recipients address. I am sure many others do the same things. However, not all do and with this I get an indication of how many people they have forwarded my flier to.
In addition my campaign is an attempt to get those who do not vote to vote, not necessarily convert those who do vote to support me. So what is my support?
Most common word used “refreshing.”
……………
I have printed your platform, and am willing to share it in my government classes. As a fellow Harding grad. I wish you well. I do have several students who are not old enough to vote yet, but would be willing to volunteer to work the polls on Nov. 4th. If you have any need for volunteers that day, please call or email me.
M.R.
……………………………………
Mr. Larsen,
I was a strong supporter of Ron Paul during the primary season, so naturally I’m attracted to your platform. I actually found out about you because I placed a Ron Paul sign in my sisters yard, and you stopped by with some information. I had the chance to read over a good chunk of it, and I could immediately tell that you are a great defender of liberty. Although I am a Republican, I consider myself a Constitutionalist and defender of liberty first, and a Republican second. Mark Souder’s voting record is terrible, he is a major proponent in the [failed] war on drugs, voted for the bailout, voted for the so called PATRIOT ACT.. I could go on and on…
That said, I came upon your blog not too long ago. I noticed that you will be debating Montagano and Souder. I would love to attend, and I may be able to bring a liberty loving friend or two along with me. Though I may be misunderstanding the location, is it at the Fort Wayne IPFW campus? If so, I would like to request 3 tickets to the debate. If you can only give out 1 ticket, that’s fine.
Additionally, how can I volunteer for your campaign? I don’t think there is a Libertarian HQ is .. At the very least, I would like a sign or two to place in my yard.. I also know at least 2 other people that would be willing to place a sign in there yard. I live in Winona, my mother lives on, and another friend lives on the big intersection at Fox Farm Rd. Sorry if you don’t know the roads I’ve mentioned, but I recall that you work at Zimmer, so you might know where I am referring to..
Good luck in your campaign, please don’t hesitate if you need any help in Warsaw or the surrounding areas.
Austin
…………………………………..
Hello William Larsen,
I have received your email stating your position on a number of issues. I understand you are running for congress in the 3rd district
“Candidate for Indiana’s 3rd District U.S. Representative,” which is the position currently held by Mark Souder.
I would like clarification on a few of your position statements. I will start with energy. You propose turning to alternative means of power. What informs your ideas? Are you in touch with various groups and who do you seek out for your information? Were you looking at wind power for the entire district, or mainly those areas in which the wind farms will be located? What organizations have you contacted and/or talked with regarding energy?
I would like also clarification on immigration. If you do find illegal immigrants here, how will you plan to “remove” them? As well, how will this effect family and friends here? Can you clarify your position on this?
I have to tell you that your approach is refreshing. I enjoyed reading your email attachment. I’m tired of politics as usual, of the tangled web of money that supports campaigns and interests. I have lately thought it might be better to send in a tea bag instead of my tax payment, and I say this in all seriousness.
I know this email will require time to answer. I’m copying my husband, and voting family and friends inside the 3rd district because we have discussed long and often these same issues, each have varying views on them.
I look forward to your reply.
Robin