My political predictions from Nov 2006
Posted by Mike Sylvester - 10/29/08 @ 12:52 am - Filed Under 2008 National Elections, National Politics
After the Democrats took control of Congress in November of 2006 I made 22 predictions. Many people chimed in and posted their predictions as well including our own Jeff Pruitt. These prediction involved Democratic campaign promises, items conservative talk radio “claimed” that the Democrats would embrace if they took the majority, and other items I was interested in.
You can read my predictions here. You can read Jeff Pruitt’s response to my predictions here.
Without a doubt; the Democrats completely failed to follow that majority of their campaign promises; however, the media and voters are not holding them accountable for this!
Several of these promises have been passed in the House; however, the Senate has failed to pass them. I think it is fair to say that House Democrats WOULD (And did pass i many cases) have passed many of these items if not for the senate. The Republicans have done some filibustering in the senate; however, the senate Democrats have COMPLETELY failed to accomplish anything.
Below are my predictions and how accurate Jeff Pruitt and I were:
1. Conservative talk radio was predicting that “The Fairness Doctrine” would be implemented. Jeff Pruitt and I disagreed and we were right.
2. Conservative talk radio felt that the Democrats would try to impeach President Bush. Jeff Pruitt and I disagreed and we were right.
3. Conservative talk radio was predicting that the Democrats would join President Bush and enact “comprehensive immigration reform, ie Amnesty.” Jeff Pruitt and I agreed. Many Democrats and Republicans tried to grant amnesty; however, Americans called their representatives in record numbers and the bill was defeated.
4. The Democrats promised to change course in Iraq and get our troops out of Iraq. In Nov of 2006 we had 133,000 troops in Iraq. I predicted that little would change in Iraq and that we would have at least 120,000 on Nov of 2007. Jeff Pruitt disagreed with me and predicted that the Democrats would enact a major policy change in Iraq and that the war would be over in 2008. This one is easy to grade; I was right and Jeff was very wrong. The Democrats actually increased troop levels in Iraq up to 146,000. The Democrats 100% broke their campaign promises to the peace wing of the Democratic Party.
5. Conservative talk radio predicted that John Bolton would be removed as UN ambassador. I disagreed. Jeff Pruitt predicted that he was “toast.” Jeff Pruitt was right and I was wrong!
6. The Democrats promised to roll back the Bush tax cuts. I predicted that the Democrats would allow some of them to expire via their sunset provisions (Those for the wealthy) and that they would make the tax code more complicated. Jeff Pruitt made a similar prediction to mine. The reality is that the Democrats have left pretty much all of the Bush tax cuts in place and they have made the tax code even more complicated. The Democrats 100% broke their promise to roll back the Bush tax cuts.
7. I predicted that the Democrats would pretty much leave estate taxes alone as did Jeff Pruitt. We were right.
8. The Democrats promised to raise the minimum wage. Jeff and I both thought the Democrats would keep this promise and they did.
9. The Democrats promised to restore fiscal sanity to Washington DC. This may be the campaign promise that really ensured they won a majority in 2006 because it resonated with a lot of people. The Democrats immediately promised to enact pay-as-you-go legislation. I predicted the Democrats would run deficits of 400 million per year which is the same amount as the first six years of the Bush Administration. I specifically guessed that the Federal Debt would be 9.3 trillion dollars on Sep 30th, 2008. Jeff Pruitt predicted that the deficit (He wrote debt in his post; however, I am certain he meant deficit) would be “significantly reduced from where it is today but probably not eliminated.”
The Democrats flat out broke this campaign promise, in fact, they are increasing the National Debt and annual deficits faster than Bush and the Republicans. In the last two fiscal years the Federal debt has increased by 1.5 trillion dollars. I predicted 800 billion dollars and Jeff predicted significantly less than 800 billion dollars. I was wrong; however, Jeff was even further of base.
10. I predicted that the Democrats would create even more unfunded liabilities for the Federal Government. Jeff felt that some minor progress would be made. On an accrual basis the Federal debt has increased by seven trillion dollars in the last two years so I was right on this one; however, it is not due to new social programs; it is mostly due to Medicare.
11. The Democrats promised to protect social security. I predicted that they would do nothing to protect social security and Jeff hedged somewhat; however, he basically predicted that some deal would be struck on social security but that it would not fix the problem.
The Democrats did nothing to protect social security; in fact, the unfunded protion increased by 200 billion dollars. Even worse social security collected hundreds of billions more then it spent and this money was not saved or put into a “lock box” at all. It was used to pay current bills in other governmental departments. The Democrats did nothing to protect social security and I was right about this.
12. The Democrats promised to ensure that less Americans are uninsured. The number of uninsured Americans has not significantly changed in the last two years. Jeff and I both predicted that they would make minor changes to healthcare and they did; many of these were done at the State level and through various programs. That being said, the Democrats passed on healthcare for two years.
13. The Democrats promised to “Put new rules in place to break the link between lobbyists and legislators.” I predicted they would break this campaign promise. Jeff Pruitt predicted they would implement it immediately.
This one is easy to grade as well. The Democrats did pass a minor “touchy feely” bill that really did little or nothing. The number of lobbyists have grown in the last two years and the Democrats failed on this campaign promise entirely.
14. The Democrats promised to immediately enact all of the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission. Jeff and I both felt they would enact them all. They did enact many of them; however, they ignored some of the more important ones and I have no idea why. This was a “no brainer” and they failed to do it.
15. The Democrats promised to reduce the interest rates of all student loans by half. I predicted they would make it happen and Jeff did not say whether or not if he thought it would happen.
The Democrats blew this promise as well. They instead gradually lowered the interest rate over the next five years for just a few student loans (In fact just new stafford loans for under graduates). At the end of five years the loan rates will stay at half the original interest rate for these few student loans for six months; then they will increase back to previous levels. I was wrong on this prediction since the Democrats completely blew it.
16. The Democrats promised to “allow government to negotiate directly with drug companies for lower drug prices for Medicare patients.” I predicted the Democrats would make a feeble effort to accomplish this. Jeff thought the Democrats would accomplish this AND that they would pass a bill allowing the re-importation of prescription drugs. The fact is none of this has happened; the Democrats dropped the ball and failed.
17. The Democrats promised to “broaden the types of stem cell research allowed with Federal Funds.” I felt that they would do this as did Jeff. We were right, the Democrats kepts this campaign promise.
18. The Democrats promised to re-institute pay-as-you-go. Jeff thought they would implement it and I did not. I was right because they just suspend it as they see the need.
19. The Democrats promised to eliminate subsidies for oil companies. Jeff and I both thought they would get this done and we were wrong. Another broken Democratic promise.
20. The Democrats promised to “energize America by achieving energy independence.” The Democrats did increase CAFE standards which is a SMALL step todawrds lowering our demand for foreign oil. Other then that nothing has been done. We still import that same amount of oil as before. Jeff and I both predicted that they could not do this in two years.
21. Nancy Pelosi promised to “run the most ethical and honest administration in history.” I predicted she would fail. Jeff Pruitt predicted that it would improve and there would be fewer parlimentary tricks. Any honest analysis would have to say that they are still doing business as usual and that little or nothing has changed; another broken promise.
22. I predicted that William Jefferson Clinton (The man taped by the FBU taking a bribe) would lose his seat in Congress to another Democrat. Jeff agreed. We were wrong he won re-election and is a current Democratic Congressman, so much for an ethical Demcoratic Congress.
The Democrats have accomplished almost nothing in the last two years.
Mike Sylvester
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5 Responses to “My political predictions from Nov 2006”
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Mike:
The congressman was William J. Jefferson not Bill Clinton :)
Pelosi is a leadership failure, she has given no direction to this country. He only accomplishment has been developing her ability to blame things on George Bush.
I’m not sure how Speaker of the House is decided, but Pelosi sure was the worst possible choice. She is not a strong leader.
Parson,
The House of Representatives chooses one Representative to be Speaker. The Speaker is always a member of the party that controls Congress.
Oustanding predictions of 2006… Mr.Sylvester it’s amazing how truth has evolved to the present day.
If folks care to re-read the 2006 ideas set-forth; it is clear & concise for all to read, think & ponder our present day circumstances.
Thank you for being clear and forth-right.
Neil and Parson:
AMEN and AMEN!