Obama Administration predictions from 11/8/8, post 1 - the first 9 of 27
Posted by Mike Sylvester - 9/29/09 @ 2:35 pm - Filed Under Uncategorized
On 11/8/8 I made a series of 27 predictions about what the first two years of the Obama Administration would bring. We are now seven months into the Obama Administration and my predictions are accurate so far.
Below is my 11/8/8 post in its entirely, my current comments on the predictions are in italics.
I hope that many of you will respond to this post with predictions of your own. I did a post similar to this two years ago and the results were interesting to say the least. Here are my predictions on what will happen in the next two years in Federal politics.
Many of you did respond to this post back in November of 2008, there were 71 comments…
1. Obama has promised to pull our combat troops out of Iraq within 16 months from taking office. I applaud this plan and I agree with it. That being said Obama will NOT keep this promise. I feel that he will pull some troops out of Iraq. We currently have 146,000 troops in Iraq. Obama will have been President for 16 months in May of 2010. May 20th, 2010 I predict we will have 80,000 troops in Iraq. This will really anger the peace wing of the Democratic Party.
This one will be impossible to grade until March 20th, 2010. Currently we have 131,000 troops on the ground in Iraq. I think my prediction is on pace to be true.
2. Many conservatives, especially in talk radio, are warning that the Democrats will bring back the “Fairness Doctrine.” I think that some Democrats will try to bring this terrible law back into effect; however, I feel they will be soundly defeated (as they should be).
My prediction is dead on so far.
3. The Democrats have been promising to restore fiscal discpline in Washington since they swept into power in the 2006 Congressional Elections. Since they took power the Federal deficits have ballooned to record levels. I expect that to continue, in fact, I expect it to get even worse in the next two years. The Federal debt was 10 trillion dollars on September 30th, 2008 (End of Federal Fiscal Year). I predict it will grow to 11 trillion dollars as of September 30th, 2009. This will result in the largest annual deficit in our nation’s history. I predict it will grow to 11.8 trillion dollars as of September 30th, 2010.
Even after repeated promises from Democrats the debt has soared to levels far beyond what I predicted. The Democrats have spent more money than even I expected.
4. Barack Obama promised to ensure we are not dependent on foreign oil in ten years. I predict that he will make absolutely no progress on lowering our dependence on foreign oil over the next two years. Every US President since Jimmy Carter has promised to lower our dependence on foreign oil and each and every one of them has failed. Barack Obama will be no different.
This one will be impossible to grade for years.
5. Democrats ran countless political ads in Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania etc. attacking the Republicans on outsourcing jobs overseas. I agree that this is a major problem that has been created by the unwillingness of Democrats as well as Republicans to address this issue. I predict the Democrats will entirely ignore the problem for the next two years.
So far my prediction is true…
6. The Democrats frequently talk about protecting Social Security. Social Security collects more then it spends and has for many decades. The Democrats have been in control of Congress for the last two years and in those two years they have continued to spend that surplus on other budgetary items. Not one dime of the social security surplus has been saved. I expect that to continue for the next two years; the Democrats will do nothing to create a social security lock box.
Things have turned out even worse than I predicted. Not only have the Democrats done nothing to save the current social security surplus; now the Social Security Administration is expecting the fund to run out of money
years earlier than expected just last year. Worse yet the program will now operate at a deficit in 2009 and in 2010. In fact, it is very possible that under the rules currently in place that Social Security will operate a deficit from now on!
7. The Democrats have talked about increasing payroll taxes on the wealthy in order to help protect social security. I expect them to follow through on this in one form or another. President Reagan eliminated the wage cap on wages for Medicare taxes. I expect President Elect Obama to modify the wage cap on social security. Currently you pay a 6.2% payroll tax on the first $102,000 in wages you make per year and your employer matches this tax. I expect Obama to basically keep it the way it is on the first $102,000 (Roughly indexed for inflation), then I expect him to not levy a social security tax on remaining wages up to $250,000; then I expect him to tax all wages above $250,000 with maybe an additional 3.1% tax for both the employee and employer. I expect this to pass Congress on a vote that is pretty close to Party lines.
The Democrats have talked about raising taxes; however, nothing has been done yet; stay tuned.
8. A large number of Democrats have promised to make affordable health-care available in one way or another. I feel this will be debated in Congress; however, I feel the Democrats will not be able to get the votes in order to create a big Government run health-care system.
I stand by this prediction as well; however, the next few months could prove me wrong.
9. The Democrats will grant Amnesty to a huge number of illegal aliens. This will anger and unite conservatives; however, the Democrats will pass an Amnesty bill very similar to the one that was recently defeated.
So far the Democrats have steered clear of this issue. I expect them to address it in 2011.
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