Handicapping the upcoming 3rd Congressional District Caucus
Posted by Mike Sylvester - 6/3/10 @ 7:00 am - Filed Under 2010 Local Elections, 2010 National Elections, Featured, Local Politics, National Politics
I am going to take a shot at predicting the outcome of the upcoming 3rd Congressional District caucus. Caucuses are notoriously hard to predict and candidates can influence the outcome with hard work and by “pressing the flesh.” As candidates are eliminated they often try to get their supporters to vote for a specific candidate and this can strongly influence the vote.
The way the caucus is going to work is that each candidate will appoint a person to speak for them for a maximum of two minutes and then will be able to speak for them-selves for three minutes.
Then there will be a secret ballot cast by all certified Precinct Committee persons present. I would guess that there will be about 450 people present who can vote. If one candidate receives one more than half of the votes the caucus is over and that candidate is the winner. If no winner is determined in the first ballot (and in my opinion there will not be a winner in the first ballot) then all candidates who received less than 5% of the total votes cast in the 1st round are removed from the process and the second ballot is cast.
On the second ballot if a candidate receives one more than 50% of the votes cast that candidate is the winner. If there is no winner than each candidate who receives fewer than 10% of the votes cast will be eliminated and there will be a 3rd ballot. If this provision eliminates all candidates but one then the candidate with the fewest votes will be eliminated and the process will continue.
On the third ballot if a candidate receives one more than 50% of the votes cast that candidate is the winner. On this ballot and each future ballot the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and the process continues until a candidate receives 50% of the votes cast plus one.
If 450 votes are cast (this is just a guess as to the number of votes that will be cast) then a candidate will have to receive 23 votes or more in order to move on to the second ballot. Currently the following people are expected to run:
- Randy Borror
- Liz Brown
- Wes Culver
- Greg Dickman
- Ryan Elijah
- Mike Foster
- Rachel Grubb
- Bob Morris
- Lonnie Powell
- Joe Schomburg
- Marlin Stutzman
- Bob Thomas
- Richard Thonert
- Phil Troyer
- Dennis Wright
I would like to insert here that I know several of the above candidates and there are a lot of good candidates in this field. That being said; I think a tremendous number will be eliminated in the first ballot because I do not feel that they will be able to garner at least 5% of the votes cast. So here is my prediction based on what I know now and with the field outlined above:
I think that about eight candidates will be eliminated on the first ballot due to not getting 5% of the vote. In no particular order I think that Schomburg, Powell, Dickman, Thonert, Wright, Foster, Morris, and Grubb will be eliminated.
My prediction is the second ballot will have seven candidates advance. That being said the candidates will have to garner 10% or more of the vote to survive the second round. I believe that three candidates will likely be eliminated in the second ballot. In no particular order I think that Thomas, Troyer, and Elijah will all be eliminated in this ballot.
That leaves for my predicted third ballot only four candidates: Borror, Brown, Culver, and Stutzman. On this ballot I think that Culver will be eliminated.
On the fourth ballot I think Brown will be eliminated leaving Borror vs Stutzman. I am having a hard time predicting which of these two candidates I think will win. I truly think one of these two will win and I think they will win on a 5th ballot.
I think the 5th ballot will be extremely close and at this point I think either candidate can win. I tend to think the candidate that works the hardest between now and June 12th will win; however, I think that the endorsement of some of the candidates who are eliminated could put either candidate over the top. I think the fifth ballot will be 52% for Borror and 48% for Stutzman. I think Borror will get the votes of many of the elected officials and their families and well as the votes of many of the Allen County Republican establishment. I think Stutzman will draw the Tea Party vote, the votes of many of the younger delegates, and quite a few votes from the northern counties.
That is my prediction; what is yours?
P.S. For the record I do not know who I am going to vote for at this point. There are a lot of good candidates. I am currently leaning towards Borror, Brown, Stutzman, or Troyer.
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14 Responses to “Handicapping the upcoming 3rd Congressional District Caucus”
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Mike, your predictions look pretty solid. However, I actually think a larger number will fail to get the initial 5% and I dont see Culver sticking around beyound the first round.
I just think Stutzman’s momentum off the senate race, relative youth and his strength in the non Allen County areas will allow him to carry the day.
I do agree on your final three of Brown, Borror and Stutzman. I think Brown will benefit greatly from being the only legitimate female candidate.
You are very brave to attempt to predict the caucus with such specificity! Your reasoning seems pretty valid to me - although Mr. Green Jeans’s amendments also sound plausible. Of course, as you point out, anything can happen in a caucus.
No matter how you look at it, this is an interesting process.
Why did Rachel Grubbs not participate in the forum?
I was trapped in my car last night and listened to much of the forum on WOWO. Obviously, you get a differernt perspective on the radio. Some general observations.
1. On the radio I thought nobobdy came across any stronger than Liz Brown.
2. Wes Culver, who I have never heard of, came across very well.
3. Marlyn Stuzman: I believe he could only go backwards last night since he has been established as the 900 pound gorilla. I think he did go backwards because I thought his performance was average.
4. Randy Borror: Much was expected so I think he just kind of treaded water.
5. Bob Thomas: Came across very well on the radio and certainly sounded like a front runner.
6. Bob Morris said in the paper he has 36 votes locked down. That is alarming after hearing his performance. If he gets 9 votes it will be an overachievement.
7. Dickman. If Dickman gets more than 1 vote (I am assuming that he is himself a precinct committee man) it will be a major accomplishment. Reminded me of the great scene in Billy Madison (there was only one good scene), “Mr Dickman, everybody in this auditorium is now dumber for having listened to you”
8. Schomburg. Low expectations for a 28 year old newbie. Certainly has no chance to do anything in the caucus but I thought he held his own for a young kid and certainly had worked hard to prepare. He outperformed a small handful of participants which should be considered a victory
9. Elijah: Sounded like a TV anchorman. Had the soundbites but I had the feeling that their wasnt much depth to his answers.
10. Foster: In response to the Palistian question…. Foster said “I am pro Israel, I am Pro Israel, I am Pro Israel, and by the way, I am also Pro Israel.” In other words, I know absolutely nothing about this particular topic so let me just say again, “I am Pro Israel”
Didnt hear the others since I was flipping back and forth with ESPN radio.
It is all very interesting. I have to agree that Liz Brown was the most impressive. I believe she would be a contender if it were up to the voters, given it’s a caucus, I think she will have to work harder to sway Precinct Committeemen since this will be largely a political selection. She seems more Mike Pence-like willing to “bring-it” than will Stutzman or Borror who will likely be good party soldiers in the Republican Congressional caucus rather than mix it up and strongly represent the issues important to the voters of the 3rd District.
Most seem very weak or don’t have very well formed ideas/opinions on foreign policy issues where, as Congressmen, they have a very important role to play. That is worrisome.
Anytime you have 15 candidates vying for a Congressional seat, it’s going to be interesting. I hope NE Indiana selects a good representative.
Fred, I agree with you that Stutzman and Borror came off sounding like politicians. Thomas does not know the first thing about defense. I think he has the impression the US can bomb anyone without retaliation. Brown has some voting issues from Allen County.
I did not know that the cut off limit in the first round was 5%. This means if 5 people had 4%, you have 20% of their vote up for grabs. This means there is a good chance that the best person for the position could loose in round 2 where the cutoff is 10%.
It will be interesting. Too bad I did not have the energy to enter.
Fifteen are wooing the precinct committemen
There’s a Randy, a Liz, two Bobs and a Marlin,
Barnum one would have loved it,
It doesn’t matter if you’re a misfit,
Now all we’re missing is Bill Larsen
BREAKING NEWS:MARK SOUDER TO RUN IN 3RD DISTRICT SPECIAL ELECTION!
“Newest candidate says he now realizes that the voters should be able to decide his fate.”
Of Course I just made this up, but wouldn’t that really spice things up a bit if it were true?
[...] couple statements from Mike regarding his feelings towards the field of candidates (original posts here and here). I still have not decided who I will support at the upcoming caucus; however, I am [...]
Saw in the Journal Gazette this morning that Stutzman received the coveted Mark Souder endorsement.
I am not sure I have seen anything as ridiculous as Souder’s offering his thoughts on this circus of a race that he created.
The entire JG article was very strange.
I hope the caucus voters select somebody totally unconnected with Souder that gives the district a clean break. Borror, Brown, Thomas, please somebody outside of the Souder circle.
[...] few days ago I posted my initial caucus predictions. Those predictions have changed a small amount due to several [...]
As I reported here before (to much derision), Stutzman was the source who forced Souder to resign. He thinks he’ll get it.
The Journal Gazette knew about this months in advance.
I can’t use my real name or I’ll lose my source.
But I told you so.
The JG sat on it. Why do you think Souder gave the “liberal” paper an exclusive? He owed them.
Littlejohn…
No one sat on anything. I, not unlike Fox and WaPo had the story going back to early March. No one could get verification.
You do not report rumors.
Souder gave the liberal Journal an exclusive because he is a liberal in conservative clothes. How about if I said that I was the source that forced Souder to resign. How could you disprove or prove it true? I like to call Fox news and talk to them and I like to follow up on rumors. Why Stutzman and why not me? I know that I will get it.