My Caucus Predictions
Posted by Mike Sylvester - 6/10/10 @ 11:31 pm - Filed Under 2010 Local Elections, 2010 National Elections, Featured, National Politics, State Politics
A few days ago I posted my initial caucus predictions. Those predictions have changed a small amount due to several factors. First off Phil Troyer dropped out of the race. Secondly Mark Souder sent a facebook message that seems to attack Stutzman. Third the phone calls I received from candidates. Fourth the direct mail pieces I have received so far.
I was called by the following candidates: Stutzman, Borror, Brown, Elijah, and Morris.
I have received numerous mail pieces and will likely get more tomorrow:
- 8 from Stuzman, 1 of these was from Cathie Humbarger and the other from Mike Huckabee’s PAC.
- 7 from Borror, 1 of these was from Tom Smith and the other from Matt Bell.
- 3 from Elijah
- 2 from Culver
- 1 each from Foster, Thonert, Powell, Welsh, Dickman and Wright
Further I got a direct mail piece from Allen County Right to Life; they did not endorse a candidate; instead they showed their questionnaire and listed the answers given by the 13 people who took the time to fill it out.
Fox TV 55 did a poll that you should read of about 1/4 of those who will vote.
My predictions for the Saturday Caucus are below and they are similar to my original predictions; except for the winner.
I think many candidates will be eliminated in the first round due to being unable to get the 5% necessary to advance to the 2nd ballot. I think that 9 candidates will be eliminated in the first ballot including: Dickman, Thomas, Wright, Grubb, Schomburg, Foster, Powell, Thonert, and Welsh. Currently I think I will vote for Morris or Brown in this round.
I think two candidates will then be eliminated in the second ballot due to being unable to get the 10% necessary to advance including: Culver and Morris. Currently I think I will vote for Morris or Brown in this round.
The 3rd ballot will only have four participants: Stutzman, Borror, Elijah, and Brown. I think Stutzman will come close to getting the majority in this ballot and I think Elijah and Brown will battle it out for who is eliminated and I think it will be very close. I think Elijah will be eliminated. I will vote for Brown in this round.
The 4th ballot will only have three participants: Stutzman, Borror, and Brown. I think Stutzman will win on this ballot. I will vote for Brown in this round.
I will be very surprised if Stutzman does not win the caucus on Saturday at this point.
I think the support for Stutzman has been growing slowly over the last week. I largely do not think the Souder Facebook message I posted will hurt Stutzman in the caucus. I largely think that most people who have read it think that former Congressman Mark Souder is lashing out at Stutzman and at one of Stutzman’s supporters (who happens to be the husband of Souder’s former mistress) in a clumsy and pathetic attempt to influence the caucus.
I decided not to vote for Borror AND Culver due to HB 1604. Jeff Pruitt put up a great post about this a few days ago and I am glad Jeff reminded me of this horrible Bill. Due to this Bill I will not vote for any current State Reps and only 1/3 of our current State Senators voted against it (One of which was Stutzman). So this November I will be voting for new faces for the Indiana Legislature.
I decided not to vote for Stutzman because I am tired of the drama; I want a fresh candidate that has had nothing to do with Mark Souder. Stutzman may well be 100% innocent; I just want a clean start. A far lesser reason is the fact that he went along with 100% of the State Senators (Reps and Dems) and supported SB23. SB23 ignored the shortfall in the Indiana Unemployment Fund and kicked that can down the road again. You can read more about that in this post.
I am looking forward to the caucus. I expect to finally have a Republican candidate for the 3rd District Congressional Seat that I can vote for in November. I have not been able to vote Republican in that race for years due to Souder!
Mike
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17 Responses to “My Caucus Predictions”
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I think your predictions are spot on. I think the final ballot will be Brown, Elijah, Stutzman and Borror. I’m not sure that Stutzman is going to pick up the majority of the votes of the fallen candidates.
Most of the committemen I spoke with either had Stutzman as their #1 candidate or not at all. I think a big part of it is his connection with Mark Souder.
I hope the caucus doesn’t turn into Fort Wayne vs the rest of the 3rd.
I know of several people who will not vote for a non Allen county native. If that feeling is very pervasive, it could get ugly / interesting.
Also the quiet Old Guard establishment has a lot of sway, and I think their candidate is Borror.
I know one thing, it won’t be Mark Souder! :)
I agree with most of your post, I think it will come down to Stutzman, Borror and Brown, I don’t think brown gain votes in the third vote. It will go to a fourth vote between Borror and Stutzman. I am glad to see Elijah jumping into conservative politics; however, this is not the place to start. I don’t see many committee people that will jump on a band wagon of someone who has not been politically active; however, in the general or in a primary he would have been a juggernaught.
I think that Stutzman, Borror, or Elijah could beet Hayhurst in the general. Not sure about Brown.
Mike-I very much respect your opinion and think your analysis is certainly realistic and probably correct. If you have not had any personal contact/experience working with Ms Brown I would urge you to talk to some folks who have been involved directly with her as I have . On a personal level I found her to be extremely dogmatic,overbearing and with an overvalued sense of her intelligence and knowledge about items where she literally knows nothing.However ,my major concern about her is that while she talks a good game and nit picks trying to save pennies on City budgets her behavior on major items is far from that of a fiscal conservative. As part of the “local Catholic Mafia” (not my term but it may be appropriate) she has fallen into lockstep support of every large and usually wasteful project proposed by the Henry Administration with Calhoun Street and The Henry City Hall being two of the most egregious from my standpoint!! Her approach on these issues makes me question her “conservative credentials” and makes me wonder who it is that she has and will owe her allegiance to in the future. Thus I would urge you to seriously consider supporting any of the other top 4-5 candidates over Ms Brown. Just MHO of course!!
Religious bigotry alive and well in the Marine household.
Mr. green Jeans-you may think whatever you like but the use of the term reflects no personal feelings or opinions about any religion or religious group. It is used to describe a power group whose actions are influenced by a particular set of religious or moral beliefs much as the terms “Christian Coalition,”Evangelical Right,”Right to Life”,etc are used.It would be completely naive to deny the existence of such groups and their influence on local,state and national politics.
Here are my thoughts on Saturday’s Caucus…
As one of only 504 precinct committeemen electing our candidate for the 3rd District, I have a responsibility to represent the will of my constituents. Over the past ten days, I have spoken with many Republican voters in Precinct 169, conservative Democrats, (and pretty much anyone with a pulse) to gain their perspective on the upcoming 3rd District Caucus. The top four names I heard consistently were: Ryan Elijah, Marlin Stutzman, Liz Brown, and Randy Borror.
My decision for whom to support comes down to two things. First and most obvious, our candidate must have the conservative credentials. We are blessed in this regard as each of the four espouses the “Right” views in varying, but acceptable degrees. Our selected candidate will proudly represent our ideals and advance the conservative cause.
Second, and I believe more important, is this: Which candidate has the best chance of defeating Mr. Hayhurst in November?
Precinct Committeemen won’t be the only ones voting in November. We must look past the Saturday Caucus and anticipate what voters want in a candidate. I believe we need to answer honestly the following questions to anticipate voter interest for our caucus selection:
Which Candidate…
1.) Has 3rd District Name Recognition – Which candidate is best known throughout the 3rd District at this time?
2.) Enjoys Cross-Party Support – Who will best appeal to conservative Democrats, Libertarians and Independents?
3.) Can Generate Enthusiasm for Voters to Show Up in November – I expect each of us will support the candidate we select in Caucus. But which candidate can best inspire an apathetic voter of ANY party to show up and vote on a cold, rainy day in November?
4.) Most Lacks “Perceived Negatives” – In the coming months we must expect our opponents to attack our selected candidate’s character, voting record, and judgment. Regardless of merit, 15 second sound bite charges must be addressed, distracting our candidate from spending time on the issues. Which candidate is least vulnerable in this area at this time?
I believe Ryan Elijah best meets this criteria (a juggernaut as Jon indicated above). While I have tremendous respect for Marlin Stutzman, Liz Brown, and Randy Borror, on behalf of voters in Precinct 169, I will be supporting Ryan Elijah for the 3rd Congressional District. Should Ryan fail to win, I will have no problem supporting these other candidates.
Dave,
I agree with your support of Ryan Elijah, but for different reasons. I am not one to look for the best candidate to win in November. I’m looking for the best candidate period.
Stutzman, Brown, Elijah and even Borror agree on 90% of the issues.
I’m looking for a clean break from Mark Souder to avoid another Kelty-esque surprise.
I don’t think Liz Brown is ready for prime-time, although I think we would see her in the news quite often speaking her mind. I also agree with L. Marine that Brown doesn’t seem to be a bona-fide fiscal conservative.
Borror has a mixed record, and is a known quantity.
I think Elijah’s conservative bona-fides are there. Over several conversations I’ve had with him about Constitutional issues, I have found his responses to be not only genuine, but he has actively researched areas he was not familiar, and came back with insight.
Elijah is no pretty face.
Of Course Mr. Marine. Thanks for the explanation:
Right to Life
Christian Coalition
Evangelical Right
and of Course,… the Catholic Mafia. I am ebarrassed that I did not catch on to the similarities before.
Do you have any good catch all phrases for Jews, Muslims or Mormons?
Wow, in order to combat a charge of bigotry, L. Marine throws out a slew of religious stereotypes. Yikes. It also appears that Ms. Brown’s biggest sin was disagreeing with L. Marine (unclear what that has to do with her Catholic beliefs).
OK Mike, Now for some rebuttal Predictions.
First Round: Everybody out except for:
Stutzman
Brown
Borror
Thomas
Culver
Elijah
Atleast 3 of the people eliminated will have 1 vote or less.
Second Round:
Down Goes Thomas and Elija
Third Round:
Culver Gone.
Fourth Round. Brown Eliminated
Fifth Round. Stutzman wins over Borror 60% to 40% on final ballot.
Sixth Round: Stutman wins in a landslide over Hayhurst in November (twice).
Not what I want to happen in the caucus, but this is what I predict will happen.
Stutzman wins over Borror and Brown.
Green Jeans you missed the Buddhist Mafia of which there is a sizable coalition.
Lockwood- I agree that Liz Brown’s votes, especially on Calhoun Street, less so on Henry Hall, were highly dubious. But I see her as the only clean break with the old party establishment. Being the first woman nominated in this district won’t hurt either. I see Dr. Hayhurst as a party man who will say and support whatever the local Democratic establishment wants. I don’t sense that in Liz, at least not yet.
She will have to promise that, if she wins, we won’t have to listen to the Notre Dame fight song.
Kudos and congratulations to Marlin Stutzman and his campaign. He was a most gracious winner. I will proudly support him in the coming months. Today my faith in our electoral process was renewed.
I felt blessed to have been a part of the process. This morning Liz Brown was her fiery self, and delivered the best address in my opinion. Bob Morris was a close second, energizing the room.
INC suggested the GOP may emerge fractured with 14 losers today. That’s not my take at all. These candidates are good people and certainly share more in common than not. Perhaps a few egos were bruised. We swallow our lumps and move on.
Keep an eye on Ryan Elijah. He has the goods and is the real deal. Clearly he has a future serving the good people of our community.
A few observations from Saturday:
(1) Stutzman was every bit (and more) the 800 pound gorilla that people feared or hoped (depending on your political perspective) he would be
(2) Bob Thomas’s strong showing in the primary was mostly anti-Souder sentiment
(3) Agree with Mr. McDonald that Elijah is more than just a pretty face
(4) Regardless of your qualifications, you gotta be well known in Allen County (Culver)
(5) Regardless of your qualifications, being well known only in Allen County isn’t enough (Borror)
(6) Stutzman will bring back a lot of Republicans disenfranchised with Souder (including this one, and I wouldn’t have voted for Stutzman in the Caucus) and steamroll the good doctor in November
(7) Mark Souder’s email had no impact whatsoever, it took a little over four weeks for him to lose 100% of the considerable political clout and influence he once had
“We swallow our lumps and move on.”
And with that statement, I hearby claim the title of “Mixed Metaphor Czar” of the Day. Sheesh.
Who says that Borror is well known in Allen County? He has never really campaigned since winning his first election in a caucus.
His name recognition is very low even in his district. People don’t know who he is.
I think I just saw a tumbleweed roll through this blog…..