Debt ceiling theatrics in Washington DC
The debt ceiling negotiations in Washington DC are nothing other than political theatre and both major political parties should be absolutely ashamed of themselves.
We need to throw the vast majority of these bums out of office.
I am actually more upset with the Republicans than I am the Democrats believe it or not…
Mike
Back Slapping
Earlier tonight I saw Allen County Republican Chairman Steve Shine on television singing his own praises because the local Republican party had done their part in helping John McCain to victory (whoops).
But let’s look at the numbers shall we. Allen County went from +27 Bush to +4 McCain. I wouldn’t be patting myself on the back too hard after a performance like that. However, I will give credit where it’s due; the Republicans did win all the county-wide seats…
Election Day Aftermath
Obama, as expected, won going away but the surprise to me was that he won Indiana. I think his victory here speaks volumes about the effort put forth by all the campaign volunteers from voter registration to get out the vote. An amazing accomplishment and something very few people thought possible before (and even after) the primary.
Wins by both Mitch Daniels and Obama was another turn of events I didn’t anticipate 6 months ago. There’s definitely some strange dynamics there. I know there will be a boatload of people harping about the ineffective JLT campaign but I think this race was lost when the Democrats capitulated during the property tax debate. Once HB1001 passed, this race was over.
I was also surprised by the margin of victory that Congressman Mark Souder won by as I really expected Montagano to outperform Hayhurst. Let’s take a look at the other races I highlighted yesterday as ones to watch:
Early Voting Indicates Record Turnout
According to a local newspaper, early voting for this 2008 election numbers 30,440 voters out of a pool of 253,313 eligible in the county.
In the 2004 election, the early birds totaled 15,716 out of a possible 225,967 voters.
That’s roughly double the amount of early voting.
The turnout for the county in 2004 was 58.4%.
Neil over at Political Equinox is on point with today’s big question:
“Will the newly registered voters brave the LONG lines to vote or will they give up after seeing the wait?”
Voter turnout in my part of Allen County, Indiana
I voted this morning at 9:30. Historically the polls are slowest from 9 - 11 AM and from 1 PM - 3 PM.
I vote at Agape Church on Lima road in precinct 299. Precinct 360 votes at Agape as well. I waited for 35 minutes to vote and I got there at 9:30 AM. I talked to several people there and it took some people 90 minutes to vote early this morning.
I drove by another polling place on Coldwater Road with lines out the door at 9 AM and 10:30 AM.
I have talked to two people who voted at other Allen County precincts and one waited 60 minutes to vote and the other waited 50 minutes to vote.
It looks like turnout will be high!
Mike Sylvester
Election Predictions
First of all I hope everyone votes. One of the keys to a successful Democracy is an informed and voting populace.
My predictions are below:
Barack Obama (D) will be the next President. He will not win in a landslide; however he will win. I further predict that McCain will win both Indiana and Ohio.
Mitch Daniels (R) will easily win the Governors race.
Greg Zoeller (R) will win the Attorney General race by at least 6 points.
Tony Bennett (R) will win the Superintendent of Public Instruction race by at least 6 points.
Mark Souder (R) will win his next term in Congress; however, it will be close. I predict Souder will get 49%, Montagano 46%, Larsen 5%.
Sue Orth (R) will easily win the race for County Treasurer in Allen County.
County Council is the hardest race for me to predict. I project Buskirk (R) having the most votes, followed by Armstrong (R), followed by Hoot (D). I think Moss (R) will come in a close 4th and Knuth (D) a distant 5th. I would not be surprised if Moss was 3rd.
Three Fort Wayne School Board seats are up for election this year. Three candidates are supported by the Code Blue Schools PAC and their opponents are supported by the leadership of the School District. I predict: Olinger will beat Hill by a comfortable margin. Schaab will beat Pierce by a small margin. Mol will beat Corona by 10 votes. In other words, I am predicting that the citizens will elect all of the Code Blue candidates in an effort to take their School District back.
What are your predictions?
Election Day - What to Watch
I’ll ignore the obvious here which are clearly the Presidential race as well as the 3rd District congressional race. But there are a few other interesting things to watch:
- Can Gary Snyder break the Republican stranglehold on Huntington politics and win a seat on the county council?
- How many seats will Democrats gain in the state legislature? I posted my thoughts on the top tier races back in mid July.
- How will the township assessor referendum turn out? Are voters ready to do away with township government?
- Will Democrats Susan Hoot and/or Kevin Knuth win a seat on the Allen County council?
- How will the FWCS races play out? Will the Code Blue Schools candidates carry the day or will the status quo win out?
Just a few local items to watch while you’re glued to the TV waiting for the big-ticket races to report…
3rd District Congressional Debate
I attended yesterday’s debate at IPFW involving the three candidates running for the 3rd District Congressional seat. In general it’s nearly impossible to gain any real information from these debates as the candidates have to sum up their positions in 30 or 90 second soundbites. But I’ll give my general impression of the candidates’ performance. You can follow the link given on the Allen County Democratic Party’s blog if you want to watch it yourself.
Bill Larsen (L) - I’ve spoke with Lasen before and he’s an intelligent guy - he’s an engineer but he’s no politician. He just doesn’t know how to connect with people to get his point across. He was clearly uncomfortable on stage and his closing argument was so statistics-laced that nobody could follow it.
Mark Souder (R) - Souder has come a long ways as a public speaker but his entire message during the debate was an attack on Montagano. He also had the audacity to complain about how negative the campaign has been and how he has been unfairly attacked. Souder’s entire campaign - nay, his entire political existence - has become intellectually bankrupt. He articulated no new ideas or coherent message about why the voters of this district should continue to support him. He has become a career politician who is scared to death that he might have to return to the private sector and earn his keep.
Mike Montagano (D) - Montagano seemed nervous at times but he was able to point to specific votes where he felt Souder had broke with the wishes of his constituents. Montagano is young, ambitious and has relatively little experience but is that such a bad thing in this case? I know what I’m getting with Mark Souder and it ain’t much.
I’ve spoken with Montagano and he’s an extremely intelligent and personable guy who has a good grasp on the issues this country faces. He’s the type of guy that everybody likes and after speaking with him you may not agree with him but you will respect him and his position.
I’ve heard rumblings from people that wished former councilman Tom Hayhurst would’ve ran again this year but I don’t agree with that. Montagano is a better choice and I don’t mean that as a slight to Tom Hayhurst. They both have the intellect but Montagano has the personality that will allow him to succeed in Congress - an area where Souder has been a miserable failure and will continue to be so with the Democratic majority.
I won’t bother to try and analyze who won or lost the debate because the truth is that it doesn’t matter. It all boils down to this - will voters continue to send a sub-par career politician back to DC or take a chance on the young, intelligent yet inexperienced guy?
If you are unhappy with Souder and want to replace him then this is your chance. If not now when? Do you want to be voting for a 36-year incumbent Mark Souder in the future? Don’t fool yourself into thinking the primary process will take him out - it won’t; it rarely ever does. The only way to oust incumbents is to vote for the other party and regroup in two years.
If you’re so inclined then there’s still time to help get rid of Mark Souder. Call (574-971-8708) or e-mail (Jen@montaganoforcongress.com) the Montagano office and ask them what you can do. Or donate to the campaign - think of it as contributing to Mark Souder’s going away party…
How Mike Sylvester plans on voting next week
I have decided how I am going to vote next week.
President: Bobb Barr/Wayne Root, Libertarian. This race was simple, I cannot vote for McCain and I definitely cannot vote for Obama. With the addition of Palin I almost decided to vote for McCain.
Governor: MItch Daniels/Becky Skillman, Republican. This race was tough for me because I almost voted Libertarian; however, I voted for Mitch Daniels because he has guts and is willing to change things.
Attorney General: Greg Zoeller, Republican. This one was easy.
Superintendent of Public Instruction: Tony Bennett, Republican. This one was easy.
3rd Congressional District: William Larsen. This one was easy as well. I cannot vote for Souder for reasons often posted on this blog. I cannot vote for Montagano because he has no experience, is afraid to take stands on the issue, and moved here just to run for Congress. I can vote for William Larsen because he is a small government type and a social conservative. William Larsen would be a Republican today if the Republican Party still stood for smaller Government.
County Treasurer: Sue Orth, Republican. I am impressed with Maria Parra’s willingness to stand up the the Wayne Township Board; however, I feel Sue Orth is more qualified.
County Council. Susan Hoot, Democrat. Paul Moss, Republican. This was the toughest race for me; in fact, I still have not decided if I will vote for a 3rd person or not. County Council has five candidates all of which have some strengths. Susan Hoot is a no-brainer for me. I have been impressed with Paul Moss in the past; however his recent desire to put public money into our zoo turned me off as has his stance on the Canyon Cliffs Development. That being said; I still think he stands for smaller Government in general.
There are a lot of other uncontested races and I do not see a reason to list them.
I became a Republican this year and certainly am voting for a majority of Republicans in contested races. In contested raced I am voting for:
- Two Libertarians
- One Democrat
- Five Republicans
Mike Sylvester
Local Paper Defends Quote
In yesterday’s post I said that one local paper’s race-baiting editorial took Evert Mol’s quote out of context. That same local paper did not think that was a fair characterization and sent me the e-mail they lifted the quote from. I’m going to post the timeline leading up to the editorial and readers can judge for themselves whether or not it was taken out of context.
