Helping Our Resident GOP Caucus Voter Make Up His Mind

FWP’s very own Mike Sylvester has a vote in the upcoming 3rd District caucus to select former congressman Mark Souder’s replacement. Here are a couple statements from Mike regarding his feelings towards the field of candidates (original posts here and here).

I still have not decided who I will support at the upcoming caucus; however, I am certainly considering Randy Borror and I have to admit that before tonight I was not considering Mr. Borror.
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For the record I do not know who I am going to vote for at this point. There are a lot of good candidates. I am currently leaning towards Borror, Brown, Stutzman, or Troyer.

Well, hopefully this post will help Mike narrow down his choices by eliminating Randy Borror as an option. And the persuasive evidence I will present is Mike’s own words regarding the legislation that made the “temporary” food and beverage tax permanent:

The state Legislature, with broad support from local Democrats and Republicans in the Indiana Legislature passed a bill at the state level that will make our local tax permenant. They have 100% discounted the will of the people when the tax was passed and they have changed what the tax will be used for; all without consulting the taxpayers.

I will never vote for any of the politicians who voted in favor of this bill.

Randy Borror not only voted for this bill, but also sponsored it and was in charge of the conference committee that finalized all the details.

I realize that time heals all wounds and people change their minds for a variety of reasons. Mike is certainly not bound by something he wrote here over a year ago but I thought he might enjoy the friendly reminder!

Unless You Like Tax Increases, Randy Borror is Not a Good Choice

I told myself I wasn’t going to post for or against any of the candidates running in the 3rd District Caucus but I’ve changed my mind. The fact of the matter is that whoever happens to win this caucus has a better than average shot at becoming our next Congressman, and as we all know it’s mighty difficult to boot an incumbent once they get entrenched. It’s because of this that I feel it necessary to point out why I think Randy Borror would not be a good choice to represent this district.

AWB has a post up reminding everyone that Borror sponsored HR 1604 and I want to expand on that post by showing how involved Borror was and what the eventual outcome was (hint: several large tax increases).

Read more

Congressional Democrats are out of the their minds

HR 4213 passed the House of Representatives on a largely Party line vote.  Every Democrat reading this blog should be ashamed to be a Democrat after reading this bill.    This is an awful bill.  There are several reasons it is awful:

  1. The Democrats campaigned in 2006 and 2008 on a platform of allowing the “Bush tax cuts” to sunset.  President Obama specifically campaigned on this.  HR 4213 extends many of these tax cuts for anywhere from 2 - 10 more years. 
  2. This bill serves to make the entire tax code even more complicated.  Our government needs to simplify the tax code; not make it more complicated.
  3. The bill has four broad sets of increases or revenue offsets embedded in it.  These four provisions are expected to increase Federal tax revenues by almost 56 billion dollars from 2010 - 2020.  The Democrats are calling this bill the “American jobs and closing tax loopholes act of 2010.”
  4. The first set of revenue offsets (about 15 billion) are all designed to enable the US to tax more foreign income.  I do not prepare tax returns for many people with foreign income and hence do not know a lot about these provisions.  I am not sure if these provisions are a good idea or not.
  5. The second set of revenue offsets (about 18 billion) are designed so that those people (hedge fund managers etc) who earn “carried interest” are taxed at a higher rate than they are currently taxed.  Currently most “carried interest” is taxed as a capital gain.  The new law is complicated; however, it will eventually cause much of the “carried interest” to be taxed as regular income.  I would favor this provision if it were done in a simple and fair way; however, Congress is incapable of that.
  6. The third set of revenue offsets (about 12 billion) is a 34 cent per barrel tax on oil.  This is supposed to go into an Oil Spill liability Trust Fund.  I oppose this provision; the oil companies are already responsible for paying to clean up oil spills; we do not need another tax at this time on oil.
  7. The fourth set of revenue offsets (about 11 billion) is a special tax that will only target certain small business owners.  Basically this tax will only be levied against certain subchapter S corporations.  It will target certain professional service S corporations and will ignore the rest of S corporations.  This tax will effect only certain professional service S corporations in certain industries; it also will only effect those with three or fewer members.  I think this provision is extremely unfair and I hope it is killed in the US Senate.  I will post more about this in separate posts because the way the House Democrats worded this provision it could cost my wife and I well over $12,000 in additional annual taxes starting in 2011.  Worse yet it will effect a large number of my clients who own small businesses.

I am so angry at the Democratic Party that it is hard to put my feelings into words.  The Democrats in the House are complete idiots and need to be voted out of office in November.

The United States economy is extremely fragile.  Why is the Democratic Party targeting professional service businesses in only certain industries with a new tax if they have three shareholders or less?   How is this fair?  For example I own an Accounting firm with two owners.  I will have to pay a higher percentage in taxes than an Accounting firm with four owners.  Does this make sense to anyone? 

Would any of you Democrats like to defend your brethren in the House of Representatives?  

Mike Sylvester

Handicapping the upcoming 3rd Congressional District Caucus

I am going to take a shot at predicting the outcome of the upcoming 3rd Congressional District caucus.  Caucuses are notoriously hard to predict and candidates can influence the outcome with hard work and by “pressing the flesh.”  As candidates are eliminated they often try to get their supporters to vote for a specific candidate and this can strongly influence the vote.

The way the caucus is going to work is that each candidate will appoint a person to speak for them for a maximum of two minutes and then will be able to speak for them-selves for three minutes. 

Then there will be a secret ballot cast by all certified Precinct Committee persons present.  I would guess that there will be about 450 people present who can vote.  If one candidate receives one more than half of the votes the caucus is over and that candidate is the winner.  If no winner is determined in the first ballot (and in my opinion there will not be a winner in the first ballot) then all candidates who received less than 5% of the total votes cast in the 1st round are removed from the process and the second ballot is cast.

On the second ballot if a candidate receives one more than 50% of the votes cast that candidate is the winner.  If there is no winner than each candidate who receives fewer than 10% of the votes cast will be eliminated and there will be a 3rd ballot.  If this provision eliminates all candidates but one then the candidate with the fewest votes will be eliminated and the process will continue.

On the third ballot if a candidate receives one more than 50% of the votes cast that candidate is the winner.  On this ballot and each future ballot the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and the process continues until a candidate receives 50% of the votes cast plus one.

If 450 votes are cast (this is just a guess as to the number of votes that will be cast) then a candidate will have to receive 23 votes or more in order to move on to the second ballot.  Currently the following people are expected to run:

  1. Randy Borror
  2. Liz Brown
  3. Wes Culver
  4. Greg Dickman
  5. Ryan Elijah
  6. Mike Foster
  7. Rachel Grubb
  8. Bob Morris
  9. Lonnie Powell
  10. Joe Schomburg
  11. Marlin Stutzman
  12. Bob Thomas
  13. Richard Thonert
  14. Phil Troyer
  15. Dennis Wright

I would like to insert here that I know several of the above candidates and there are a lot of good candidates in this field.  That being said; I think a tremendous number will be eliminated in the first ballot because I do not feel that they will be able to garner at least 5% of the votes cast.  So here is my prediction based on what I know now and with the field outlined above:

I think that about eight candidates will be eliminated on the first ballot due to not getting 5% of the vote.  In no particular order I think that Schomburg, Powell, Dickman, Thonert, Wright, Foster, Morris, and Grubb will be eliminated.

My prediction is the second ballot will have seven candidates advance.  That being said the candidates will have to garner 10% or more of the vote to survive the second round.  I believe that three candidates will likely be eliminated in the second ballot.  In no particular order I think that Thomas, Troyer, and Elijah will all be eliminated in this ballot.

That leaves for my predicted third ballot only four candidates:  Borror, Brown, Culver, and Stutzman.  On this ballot I think that Culver will be eliminated. 

On the fourth ballot I think Brown will be eliminated leaving Borror vs Stutzman.  I am having a hard time predicting which of these two candidates I think will win.  I truly think one of these two will win and  I think they will win on a 5th ballot.

I think the 5th ballot will be extremely close and at this point I think either candidate can win.  I tend to think the candidate that works the hardest between now and June 12th will win; however, I think that the endorsement of some of the candidates who are eliminated could put either candidate over the top.  I think the fifth ballot will be 52% for Borror and 48% for Stutzman.  I think Borror will get the votes of many of the elected officials and their families and well as the votes of many of the Allen County Republican establishment.  I think Stutzman will draw the Tea Party vote, the votes of many of the younger delegates, and quite a few votes from the northern counties.

That is my prediction; what is yours?

P.S.  For the record I do not know who I am going to vote for at this point.  There are a lot of good candidates.  I am currently leaning towards Borror, Brown, Stutzman, or Troyer.

3rd District Congressional Caucus

I attended a “meet and greet” for Randy Borror this evening.

He presented himself very well and did a good job as portraying himself as:

  1. An effective legislator as far as job creation and improving the business environment in Indiana.
  2. An effective leader within the Indiana Republican Legislative caucus.
  3. A strong fundraiser.
  4. A proven and experienced leader.
  5. A hard working politician who would not be “out worked” in this race.

All in all I was fairly impressed with Mr. Borror this evening.

I think he will appeal to a lot of Republicans who want an experienced fundraiser and legislator. 

I still have not decided who I will support at the upcoming caucus; however, I am certainly considering Randy Borror and I have to admit that before tonight I was not considering Mr. Borror.

Mike Sylvester

3rd District Caucus

I have had numerous people ask me who I will vote for in the upcoming Republican 3rd District Caucus.  The truth of the matter is; I am not sure yet.

I think there may be more people who decide to run and it is hard to decide who to vote for when you do not know who all of your choices are going to be.

In an earlier post I predicted that I would get 50 pieces of direct mail and additional phone calls. 

To date I have received:

  1. A letter from Marlin Stutzman
  2. A letter from Randy Borror
  3. Another piece from Marlin Stutzman.  This was in invitation to a cookout and then a Tin Caps Game.  I plan on attending the cookout.
  4. A letter from Matt Bell, supporting Randy Borror.
  5. An email from Kurt and Carrie Gutman inviting me to an event with Randy Borror.  I plan on attending this as well.

I also got a phone call from Marlin Stutzman over Memorial Day weekend and a second call from one of his supporters.  They had my work number and so left messages since the office was closed.

Since the candidates only have a little over 500 people to market to I am certain that all of the Precinct Committee persons will get a huge amount of direct mail, email, and phone calls.

I truly believe that this is a race that only two people have a chance of winning.  I truly think that the final two contestants in the Caucus will be Randy Borror and Marlin Stutzman.  I do not think there is realistically any chance of anyone other than those two winning this Caucus.  That being said, caucuses like this are strange events and we will know who wins on June 12th!

Mike Sylvester

3rd District Caucus Discussion Thread

It’s surprising to see some of these names enter the race - a few too many inflated egos if you ask me. I still think it’s quite unfortunate that an extreme minority of insiders will select whose name goes on the ballot but I guess we can all thank Souder for that one. He certainly should’ve chosen not to run for re-election and given the voters an opportunity to select their candidate.

But this crowded field presents an interesting opportunity for the official and potential candidates. It’s possible that a candidate from outside of Allen County could put together a coalition of committee members from the various surrounding counties and win. Unfortunately for that hypothetical candidate Marlin Stutzman is in a strong position to do just that AND he’s popular within Allen County.

Also, as I’ve alluded to before, it makes smaller factions like the Ron Paul supporters that much more powerful. Can they actually work with a few other groups to make their candidate of choice a contender? And who is their candidate - Troyer?

Bob Thomas also presents another interesting case. You would think that a candidate who could self-finance and had a strong showing in the primary would be a front-runner. But the primary battle with Souder was brutal and healing those wounds takes time. He’s also an outsider trying to convince a bunch of insiders that he should be the choice - that’s a tough sell.

Right now I’d say Stutzman and Randy Borror are the favorites. Borror has been an insider for a long time and having those relationships is clearly an advantage in a caucus.

Those are my thoughts, but I’d like to hear from others. Who do you think are the top contenders and who might the dark horse be? What other factors might come into play leading up to the caucus? Or feel free to share anything else you want regarding this race…

Bob Thomas Enters the Race

From the press release:

n a press conference this afternoon, Bob Thomas formally declared his intentions to seek the Republican nomIination for the special election and general election to replace Mark Souder.

“Nothing has changed since we entered the race three months ago. This country is facing bankruptcy and our Representatives in Congress are attempting to tackle problems that they don’t have the training or experience to handle.”

“I am running because of the people who stood with me today. I am running for the tens of thousands who voted for me three weeks ago. I am running because strength and integrity matter.”

“We must evaluate candidates based on their credentials, not on the list of political offices they’ve held.”

I think the last quote would be a winner if this were an election but in the caucus running as an outsider might be a disadvantage.

There’s so many people in the race now I’m losing track. I’ll have a caucus discussion post up later…

3rd District Republican Caucus

Today I received my second piece of direct mail for the upcoming Caucus.  This piece was from Marlin Stutzman.  It was in the form of a letter.  This was a reasonably good direct mail piece and was a positive mail piece.

So now I have received two direct mail pieces for the upcoming Caucus; I still predict I will get 50 by the time June 12th, 2010 is here.

Mike Sylvester

3rd District Congressional Caucus

The caucus to replace Mark Souder as a Republican candidate will be held in Whitley County on June 12th.  Time and location to be announced.

About 520 Precinct Committee persons are eligible to vote on June 12th.  The candidates can easily get the contact information for all 520 people.  Based on this fact I expect to get a lot of direct mail over the next three weeks and several phone calls from prospective candidates. 

I got my first piece of direct mail from a candidate yesterday.  I got a piece from “Randy Borror for Congress.”  It was a positive piece and I think his campaign did a reasonably good job designing this letter.  It is positive and talks only about Randy Borror. 

I think I will likely get at least 50 direct mail pieces from candidates between now and June 12th, 2010!

Mike Sylvester

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